Every prediction. Tracked.
We log every Edge Score we publish. Each game gets graded against the actual result. Information only — no advice, no betting recommendations, no cherry-picking.
We're building the public sample. Right now we have 9 graded predictions since May 8, 2026. Statistical significance requires at least 100 graded games.
Check back as the sample grows. Goal: 60%+ accuracy on confident predictions, comparable to Vegas closing lines.
Accuracy by confidence
How the model performs at different confidence levels.
When factors dominate
Accuracy when a single component is highly favored. Reveals which factors carry the most predictive signal.
Last 15 predictions
The most recent graded games, newest first.
How this works
Eight components. Every game gets scored on starting pitcher, bullpen, offense, defense, matchup, park factor, weather, and rest. Each weighted, summed, and capped at -100 to +100.
Confidence tiers. Strong (≥25), Moderate (12-24), Slight (5-11), Toss-up (under 5). We only publish predictions for the first three. Toss-ups are excluded from accuracy.
Auto-graded. Each morning, yesterday's results are pulled from MLB Stats API and predictions are graded automatically. Nothing here is hand-picked.
Information only. The Edge does not provide betting advice. Track record exists for transparency, not as a tipping service.
Want to see the math live? Open any game preview and tap "See the math behind each component."