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MLB · Saturday, May 9 · Kauffman Stadium

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Royals

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Detroit Tigers logo
Detroit Tigers
1820
SP: Ty Madden
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Kansas City Royals logo
Kansas City Royals
1721
SP: Michael Wacha
The Edge Indicator · V2
Lineups confirmed
2
— Edge Favors
Even Matchup
"Smith's 1.59 ERA and Detroit's bullpen edge overcome a balanced offensive matchup in Kansas City."
← Strong KCEven-2Strong DET
-1000+100
— The Eight Components

What's moving the score.

1
Starting Pitcher
XFIP- ADJUSTED
DET
+26
2
Bullpen
WPA/LI + AVAILABILITY
DET
+3
⊕ Free Tier Ends Here
3
Offense
WRC+ LAST 30 DAYS
±0
Pro
4
Defense
OAA + DRS COMBINED
±0
Pro
5
Matchup
PITCHER ARSENAL VS LINEUP
±0
Pro
6
Park Factor
3-YR HR + RUN FACTOR
±0
Pro
7
Weather
WIND + TEMP IMPACT
±0
Pro
8
Rest & Travel
BULLPEN USAGE + DAYS
±0
Pro
— The Read

Burch Smith has been dominant in limited work with a 1.59 ERA across 11.1 innings, while Wacha's recent stretch tells a different story—6.32 ERA over his last three starts with just 6.8 K/9. Detroit's bullpen (3.89 ERA) also has a clear advantage over Kansas City's (4.31 ERA), and both units saw similar work yesterday. The Royals have some momentum with Marte's five-game hit streak and Loftin hitting .300 over his last five, but that's outweighed by Greene's 19-game on-base streak for Detroit. Smith's dominance and the bullpen gap give Detroit a slight edge in a park that suppresses home runs.

See the math behind each component ↓
Updated 1 hr ago· Information only
Unlock all 8 components →
§ Form Guide

How they're trending.

Last 10 games
TigersL4

Tigers are scuffling — 3-6 L10 with 4 straight losses, getting outscored by 0.2 runs per game.

36
L10
3.4
Runs / G
-0.2
Run Diff
RoyalsW1

Royals are 6-4 L10, run differential +0.1 per game over the last ten.

64
L10
4
Runs / G
+0.1
Run Diff
§ Pitching Matchup

The arms tonight.

2026 · Statcast
Tigers · 00
Ty Madden

Ty Madden

0.00
ERA
0.80
WHIP
12.60
K/9
Pitch Arsenal · 2026
Cutter
29.6%
Whiff 38.5%BAA .111K 44%
4-Seam Fastball
28.4%
Whiff 12.5%BAA .500K 33%
Last 1 Starts
DateOppIPERKRes
5/4Sox5.007ND
Royals · 32
Michael Wacha

Michael Wacha

3.05
ERA
1.06
WHIP
7.31
K/9
Pitch Arsenal · 2026
4-Seam Fastball
28.7%
Whiff 20.5%BAA .170
Changeup
24.4%
Whiff 31.0%BAA .162
Cutter
16.6%
Whiff 18.6%BAA .323K 27%
Sinker
14.2%
Whiff 20.0%BAA .125
Curveball
8.4%
Whiff 37.5%BAA .400K 40%
Last 5 Starts
DateOppIPERKRes
5/4Guardians7.023W
4/29Athletics5.045ND
4/22Orioles5.165ND
4/17Yankees6.026ND
4/11Sox8.007W
§ Conditions

Game-time forecast.

Partly cloudy
Game-time conditions
65°F
Temp · feels 63°
2mph
Wind · from E
5%
Precipitation
100%
Cloud cover

Partly cloudy in Kansas City, MO at first pitch.

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