Mariners
Sox
What's moving the score.
Both starters are struggling badly—Castillo's 7.31 ERA and Kay's 10.33 ERA over their last three outings make this a coin flip at the top. Seattle's bullpen holds the edge at 3.75 ERA versus Chicago's 4.44, and that gap matters when neither starter can go deep. Montgomery's 20-game on-base streak fuels Chicago's lineup, but Raleigh's brutal 0-for-25 gives Seattle's offense real vulnerability. This is genuinely close, with the bullpen advantage slight enough that execution down the stretch decides it.
See the math behind each component ↓How they're trending.
MarinersW2Mariners are 5-5 L10, run differential +0.2 per game over the last ten.
SoxL3Sox are 6-4 L10, run differential +0.9 per game over the last ten.
The arms tonight.
Luis Castillo
| Date | Opp | IP | ER | K | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/3 | Royals | 6.0 | 4 | 5 | ND |
| 4/27 | Twins | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | ND |
| 4/21 | Athletics | 5.0 | 2 | 6 | ND |
| 4/16 | Padres | 5.1 | 1 | 3 | ND |
| 4/11 | Astros | 3.1 | 7 | 3 | W |
Anthony Kay
| Date | Opp | IP | ER | K | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/3 | Padres | 5.0 | 2 | 5 | ND |
| 4/27 | Angels | 4.0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 4/22 | Diamondbacks | 3.2 | 8 | 1 | ND |
| 4/16 | Rays | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | ND |
| 4/9 | Royals | 5.2 | 0 | 6 | W |
Game-time forecast.
Clear in Chicago, IL at first pitch.
→ Blowing in from right field
Five-minute reads. Three hours before first pitch.
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