Astros
Reds
What's moving the score.
Cincinnati's bullpen is the story here—a 4.73 ERA that's 94 basis points better than Houston's 5.67—and that gap matters in a close game. Arrighetti and Burns are both rolling (sub-2.15 ERAs over three starts), but Burns has been sharper: 1.98 ERA with 11.9 K/9 and 7 consecutive scoreless innings. Great American's 1.1 run factor and 1.2 HR factor naturally favor the visiting Astros, while Houston's lineup (0.754 OPS, 4.46 R/G) edges Cincinnati's (0.715 OPS, 4.37 R/G)—Paredes riding a 12-game on-base streak adds some punch. The bullpen advantage and Burns' form keep this close, but Houston's deeper toolbox makes it lean slightly their way.
See the math behind each component ↓How they're trending.
AstrosW1Astros are 5-4 L10, run differential -0.2 per game over the last ten.
RedsL8Reds are scuffling — 2-8 L10 with 8 straight losses, getting outscored by 3.4 runs per game.
The arms tonight.
Spencer Arrighetti
| Date | Opp | IP | ER | K | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/2 | Sox | 5.0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 4/26 | Yankees | 7.0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 4/20 | Guardians | 5.0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4/15 | Rockies | 6.0 | 1 | 10 | W |
Chase Burns
| Date | Opp | IP | ER | K | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/3 | Pirates | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | ND |
| 4/28 | Rockies | 6.0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 4/21 | Rays | 5.2 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 4/16 | Giants | 6.0 | 0 | 4 | ND |
| 4/10 | Angels | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | ND |
Game-time forecast.
Clear in Cincinnati, OH at first pitch.
→ Blowing out to center — favors hitters
Five-minute reads. Three hours before first pitch.
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